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1394 Finding Opportunity in 2004 Despite Roadblocks (2/8/2004)

The market for products with IEEE 1394 (1394) continues to be characterized by both tremendous opportunity and enormous ambiguity, according to In-Stat/MDR (http://www.instat.com). The high-tech market research firm reports that the high-speed serial bus specification (also known as FireWire or i.Link) is thriving in both PC and Consumer Electronics (CE) markets and, as a result, shipments of 1394-enabled devices are expected to see a 22.2% Compound Annual Growth Rate between 2003 and 2008.

However, major inhibitors do exist in this market. These include interface alternatives, including USB 2.0 and Digital Visual Interface (DVI) and High Definition Multimedia Interface (HDMI), in addition to a continuing tech slump. For example, PC peripherals constitute a shrinking market for 1394 as the success of USB in the PC space is leading to its domination of devices that connect to the PC, including printers, scanners, and PC cameras. USB's success is even having an effect on previously strong 1394 markets, including external hard disk drives and DVD writers. However, 1394's weakness in PC peripherals is offset by growth in CE devices, including digital televisions, DVD recorders, and digital camcorders.

A recent report from In-Stat/MDR also reveals the following:

The past year has seen big news for this market with the announcement of two new 1394 specifications. 1394c combines 1394b and Ethernet onto a common Physical layer and promises to have an impact in the home networking space, where both technologies compete. The other major 1394 announcement concerns Wireless 1394, a specification to transmit 1394 wirelessly over Ultra Wideband (UWB). Wireless 1394 will be optimized for in-room cluster connectivity, including ad-hoc connections, between a portable device and tabletop device, such as a digital camcorder and DVD recorder.

1394 is growing steadily in the PC space. Consumer desktops and notebooks are leading the way in 1394 integration. However, corporate desktop vendors are showing little interest.

In the Automotive space, specifications have been developed to help establish 1394 as an automotive networking standard. The first 1394 automotive networks should be seen in the aftermarket, in Japan, before the end of 2004. However, they will not be seen in factory-installed cars until the second half of 2006.

The report, "1394 in 2004: The Market for 1394 Products" (#IN0401155MI), which contains analysis and five-year forecasts for all 1394-enabled products. Responses on 1394 from In-Stat/MDR's annual Residential Technology Survey and brief profiles of major 1394 silicon and IP suppliers are also included in the report.

www.instat.com