News

DisplaySearch Report Indicates PDPs Continue to Surge; Outlook Raised on Significant Supply Growth, Lower Costs and Prices, Performance Improvements and Supply Chain Advantages (1/7/2004)

DisplaySearch, the worldwide leader in flat panel display (FPD) market research and consulting, indicated in its latest "Quarterly PDP Shipment and Forecast Report" that Plasma Display Panel (PDP) shipments to the TV and Public Display markets rose 127% Y/Y in Q1'04 to 699K units and are expected to rise even faster in Q2'04. Revenues exceeded $1B for the first time, rising 88% Y/Y to $1.02B. Driving the rapid growth is strong demand from the TV market, which has risen from 80% to 90% of shipments over the past year. In addition, with rapid PDP supply growth, more cost-effective fabs, falling material costs and healthy competition from other technologies leading to lower prices, the outlook for PDPs in on the rise.

According to DisplaySearch President and CEO Ross Young, "With PDP manufacturers improving performance and enjoying significant supply chain advantages over microdisplay rear projection TVs and LCD TVs which have been suffering from component constraints, the outlook for PDPs has never been brighter. Even with a double-digit surplus forecasted, we now expect PDP shipments to TV and Public Display manufacturers to rise at a 51% CAGR to 13.6M units in 2008. Assuming no surplus and full utilization, more than 15M units is possible. We expect PDPs to overtake RPTVs at 40"-49" in 2004 with the price gap between PDPs and microdisplay rear projection TVs narrowing significantly over the next few years."

The second issue of this report has added a number of new deliverables including:

-- PDP TV bill of materials for major sizes/formats;
-- PDP TV street price trends;
-- PDP TV capacity by supplier in square meters;
-- Sophisticated PDP supply/demand model;
-- "What if" scenario revealing PDP shipments through 2008 under different surplus conditions;
-- Pricing forecast comparisons between PDP, LCD and microdisplay RPTVs;
-- PDP share and penetration of the total TV market in units, revenues, size and region out to 2008.

Highlights of the latest issue include the following:

-- Due to its broad availability and attractive price point, 42" 480p panels rose from a 42% to a 49% share in Q1 on 38% growth and are expected to rise to a 54% share in Q2. All 40"-43" formats combined reached a 72% share in Q1, up from 66%.
-- Samsung SDI overtook FHP in total units and revenues for the first time in Q1'04, earning a 24% unit share and a 22% revenue share. FHP, LGE and Matsushita remained #2 - #4. More changes are expected in the top four positions in Q2'04. -- By supplier by size and format:
-- FHP continued to lead at 32", 37" HD and 42" HD. -- Matsushita led at 35"-37" 480 ED.
-- Samsung SDI remained #1 at 40"-43" ED.
-- Pioneer continued to lead at 50" - 55" HD.
-- NEC remained #1 at 60"+ HD.
-- 42" HD street prices have declined 14% over the past four months with 50" HD down 10%.
-- Rapid PDP supply growth is expected over the next 8 quarters with unyielded capacity expected to rise 211% in square meters or 248% in 42" equivalents.
-- Given the large increase in supply, prices will fall and unit shipments will continue to surge. The price gap between PDP TVs and microdisplay RPTVs will narrow significantly over the next few years, particularly if component constraints continue to hamper the microdisplay RPTV market. In fact, it is expected that 42" ED PDP prices will fall below similar sized microdisplay HD RPTVs as early as 2005.
-- With improvements in performance and availability along with lower prices, PDP TVs are expected to grow at a 62% CAGR with its unit share rising from 0.6% in 2003 to 6% in 2008. Its revenue share is expected to triple from 6% in 2003 to 18% in 2008.

DisplaySearch's 200+ slide "Quarterly Plasma Display Panel Shipment and Forecast Report" is priced from $3,995 - $4,995 for an annual subscription or $1,335 - $1,665 for a single issue.

www.displaysearch.com