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IDC Forecasts 56% LCD Panel Revenue Growth in 2004 (1/4/2004)

The demand for LCD-TVs will drive the next wave of growth in the LCD panel market according to IDC's new study, Worldwide TFT-LCD Demand and Supply 2004-2007 Forecast. This study predicts that, due to the growth of LCD-TV demand, the TFT-LCD market, which includes LCD-TV panels, notebook LCD panels, and desktop monitor LCD panels, will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from $24 billion in 2003 to reach $42 billion in 2007. This year the total LCD panel market revenue will grow by 56% to $37 billion.

"The TFT-LCD market is expected to double its current size over the forecast period," said Stanley Jeong, research manager for TFT-LCD research at IDC. "Most notably, revenue in the LCD-TV market segment will grow at such a torrid pace that it will exceed the revenue in the LCD-notebook panel market by 2005."

Additional findings from IDC's study include:

* The 17-inch panel size will become the most popular for desktop PC LCD monitors during 2004, accounting for 60% of total desktop PC LCD monitor demand. 19-inch panels will account for 40% share by 2007.

* By 2007, 43% of LCD-TV panels will be over 30 inches, increasing sharply from 4% in 2003, due to the introduction of sixth- and seventh-generation LCD production lines dedicated to LCD-TV market segment

* 14.1-inch and 15-inch panels will remain the mainstream size for notebooks. The combined market share for these two LCD panel sizes will hover around 90% from 2004 to 2007. Panels under 14.1 inches will actually disappear during the forecast period.

* On a percentage basis, higher unit demand than revenue implies that the LCD market will be oversupplied during the forecast period and experience notable price erosion, especially from 2005 and beyond.

IDC's Worldwide TFT-LCD Demand and Supply 2004-2007 Forecast (IDC #30987) analyzes the long-term supply and demand situation in the TFT-LCD market based on demand forecast and capital expenditure trends. This report includes a forecast of revenue and average selling prices for the major TFT-LCD applications, including LCD monitor panels, notebook panels, and LCD-TV panels. IDC also provides the margin ratio compared to the production cost and budget ratio change in PC systems. This report covers the supply and demand status of large-sized TFT-LCD panels that are used in key applications, such as notebook PCs, desktop PCs (including all-in-one PCs as TFT-LCD monitors), and TFT-LCD TVs.

www.idc.com